Weekly US consumer spending estimates for 10,000 companies
Overview
A representative panel of US consumer spending by zip codes within major metro areas, top CBSAs, and states. This product includes consumer spending estimates for 10,000 companies and is based on anonymous transactions from millions of credit and debit cards across financial institutions.
Measures include:
Sales ($), transactions (#), and average order values ($)
Customer retention rates (%)
Year-over-year (%) sales, transactions, average order values
Our Consumer Spending product is tiered so customers pay only for the geography levels they need. On Snowflake Marketplace, you will see two Consumer Spending listings. All geography levels, including zip codes, top CBSAs, and states are available in the core Consumer Spending listing. A subset of geography levels, including top CBSAs and states (no zip codes) are available in the Consumer Spending - State/CBSA Levels listing.
Weekly on Tuesday, with data through the previous Monday
History
Since February 2018
Description
The data is available at the company, NAICS (North American Industry Classification System), MARTS (Advanced Monthly Retail Trade Survey) and MCC (Merchant Category Code) levels. Additionally, the data is cut by demographics including both age ranges and income brackets. Data can also be broken down by channel (offline vs. online spend) and geographies — grouped by consumer billing address and merchant location. Geographies covered include US zip codes within major metro areas, the top 100 core-based statistical areas (CBSAs) as measured by population, and states. Data is aggregated to weekly, monthly and quarterly periods as well as 4-5-4 retail calendar periods.
All Cybersyn products follow the EAV (entity, attributes, value) model with a unified schema. Entities are tangible objects (e.g. geography, company). Entities may have characteristics (i.e. descriptors of the entity) in an index table and values (i.e. statistics, measure) in a timeseries table. Refer to Cybersyn Concepts for more details.
This content is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment or financial advice or an offer for the purchase of any securities. Cybersyn is not a financial advisor. None of the information we share constitutes an opinion, endorsement or recommendation about any securities or investments. Content we share is based on our own research and analysis, and we make no representations or guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Any projections we make about current or future revenue or company performance are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Any decisions made based on content we provide are the sole responsibility of the individual making those decisions. You should consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
The following ERD is for the core Consumer Spending product. Use the "Zoom In" feature to view.
Notes & Methodology
Year-over-year definitions
Sales/Revenue YoY: The year-over-year change in total dollar value of sales in USD in a given period.
Transactions YoY: The year-over-year change in the number of sales transactions for a given period. Each purchase an individual makes counts as 1 transaction.
AOV YoY: The year-over-year change in average order value in USD. This is also known as the average cart size for an online order. Note that this differs from a pure “average price” measure because the quantity of items purchased is not factored in. Calculated as 'Sales / Transactions'
Categorization
Merchant category codes (MCCs) are assigned to merchants by card processors based on the types of products that the company sells. Cybersyn maps these MCCs to North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes to create industry-level aggregations that are directly comparable to the US Census Bureau’s Advance Monthly Retail Sales Survey (MARTS) estimates.
Spend by company
Company-level estimates are for the lowest level of company or subsidiary available. For example, transactions at Whole Foods are mapped to Whole Foods Market Inc rather than Amazon Inc. In cases where a company subsidiary does not exist for a particular merchant, the transactions are mapped to the overarching top-level holding company.
User selection and inclusion
A cohort approach is taken to ensure data quality and to limit the panel of consumer cards to only card users that have a sufficient level of historical data. To be included in the panel, a card must have been active for at least 24 months. "Active" is defined as having at least $1 of sales in a given month. This allows Cybersyn to create like-for-like sales growth estimates that are independent of fluctuations in the size of the underlying consumer panel.
4-5-4 retail calendar
The 4-5-4 retail calendar is a standardized accounting and reporting calendar system used by many retailers, where each fiscal year is divided into 13 weeks, aiming to align with shifts in weekends and holidays to facilitate more accurate financial comparisons.
A 4-5-4 retail year is typically 52 weeks, but every 5-6 years, there is a 53-week year. The 53-week years since 2010 have been 2012, 2017, and 2023.
Purchase geographies
Geographies are grouped both by consumer billing address and merchant location. In the core Consumer Spending product, consumer billing addresses and merchant locations are down to the zip code level. Estimates for merchant locations only include offline (i.e. in-store) transactions.
Aggregations of MERCHANT x CONSUMER_GEO / MERCHANT_GEO that do not meet a minimum number of average monthly transactions are not exposed. For example, spend for Retailer ABC by residents of New York City for the 18-24 demographic might be available while the same estimate may not be available for Akron, OH due to a smaller sample size. This is especially common for companies that operate regionally.
The cross of CONSUMER_GEO x MERCHANT_GEO (i.e. consumers who live in New York and shop in LA) is not currently made available.
Expanded product granularity to include zip code level data. Added customer retention data.
Data is available in the following tables:
CONSUMER_SPENDING_MERCHANT_RETENTION_TIMESERIES
CONSUMER_SPENDING_INDUSTRY_TIMESERIES
CONSUMER_SPENDING_MERCHANT_TIMESERIES
11/22/23 - Added spend by geography for states and top 100 CBSAs. Added online/offline spend breakdown
Expanded the granularity of values in the CONSUMER_SPENDING_TIMESERIES table to include breakdown by geography. Geographies are grouped both by purchaser primary location (i.e. where the spender lives) and purchase location (i.e. where the physical store is located). The data covers US states and the top 100 core-based statistical areas (“CBSAs”) as measured by population.
Purchaser geographies are represented in the PURCHASER_PRIMARY_GEO_ID and PURCHASER_PRIMARY_GEO_NAME fields
Purchase location geographies are represented in PURCHASE_LOCATION_GEO_ID and PURCHASE_LOCATION_GEO_NAME fields
PURCHASER_PRIMARY_GEO_ID and PURCHASER_PRIMARY_GEO_ID can be used to join the data with Cybersyn’s geography tables such as the GEOGRAPHY_INDEX based on the GEO_ID field
Added purchase channels covering online and offline spend.
Purchase channels are reflected in the CHANNEL field in the CONSUMER_SPENDING_ATTRIBUTES table and included in the VARIABLE_NAME values in the CONSUMER_SPENDING_TIMESERIES table
Note that data for “purchase location” geographies only includes offline spend.
11/20/23 - Added aggregations by NAICS codes and by 4-5-4 retail months
Expanded the CONSUMER_SPENDING_TIMESERIES and the CONSUMER_SPENDING_ATTRIBUTES tables to include aggregations by NAICS (North American Industry Classification System) and 4-5-4 retail calendar months.
Deprecated MCC_CODE, MCC_CODE_DESCRIPTION and MART_VARIABLE fields in the the CONSUMER_SPENDING_ATTRIBUTES table and replaced them with AGGREGATION_TYPE and AGGREGATION_VALUE.The newly added fields can be used to filter to a desired level of aggregation including to the NAICS, MARTS Segment, and MCC levels.
Additionally, the following fields were added in anticipation of upcoming dataset expansions. Note that these fields only contain total values for now. Future iterations of the product will include more granular cuts of data.
Added COMPANY_NAME, PURCHASER_PRIMARY_GEO_ID, PURCHASER_PRIMARY_GEO_NAME, PURCHASE_LOCATION_GEO_ID, and PURCHASE_LOCATION_GEO_NAME to CONSUMER_SPENDING_TIMESERIES
Added CHANNEL to CONSUMER_SPENDING_ATTRIBUTES
11/6/23 - Added nominal value projections (dollar-level figures)
Expanded values in the CONSUMER_SPENDING_TIMESERIES table to include nominal estimates. New measures include estimates for revenue ($), transactions (#), and average order value ($). These newly added variables build on the existing year-over-year (%) estimates for those measures already in the table.
Nominal values can be used to measure market share or compare average transaction amounts across retailers. Because these estimates are based on a panel of consumer spending, they are not meant to be projections of the entirety of US spending but they are accurate as a measure of relative spend. For example, the sum of all Chipotle spend will not equal the company's actual spend but Chipotle's market share relative to McDonald's should be correct.
The newly-added variables in the timeseries table include matching variables in the CONSUMER_SPENDING_ATTRIBUTES table with the new variables being MEASURE values of Revenue, Transactions, and AOV.
11/3/23 - Added CALENDAR_INDEX table
Added the calendar_index table which compiles common calendars into a single table. Each calendar type has a unique CALENDAR_ID, which allows users to select which calendar type they want to use. Individual periods within each calendar type include period start and end dates.
The calendar_index currently includes regular calendar periods (days, weeks, months, quarters, and years) and 4-5-4 retail calendar periods (4-5-4 retail months, quarters, and years).
The 4-5-4 retail calendar is a standardized accounting and reporting calendar system used by many retailers, where each fiscal year is divided into 13 weeks, aiming to align with seasonal variations and facilitate more accurate financial comparisons.
Added year-over-year estimates for company-level spend, transaction, and AOV to the CONSUMER_SPENDING_TIMESERIES. Company-level information is identified with the company_id field.
The company_id is a unique identifier assigned by Cybersyn to each company and is joinable to the COMPANY_INDEX, which provides company names and other helpful identifiers such as CIK, LEI, PermID, and more. Note that when the company_id is null, then the row represents data for all companies.
Errata & Future Improvements
We note known issues and planned future improvements. If you would like to submit a bug report or feature request, email us at support@cybersyn.com
Terms
Customers are subject to the Cybersyn terms of service.